尽管零售价很高，但本赛季新斯科舍省草莓的需求量很高。照片：詹妮弗·亨德森
关于燃料成本上升的讨论是在星期四由特鲁罗和科尔切斯特商会主持的小组讨论中的亮点。参与者同意，对农民，制造商，卡车司机和零售商的燃油成本迅速上涨。但是，更大的担心是劳动力短缺，这正在减缓当地食品和商品的生产，并扼杀农业，货运和制造业的未来增长。
“每个人都在争先恐后地填补订单，”新斯科舍省加拿大制造商和出口商执行董事米歇尔·雷蒙德（Michel Raymond）说。“燃油成本并没有推动这一点。大多数公司无法满足需求，因为他们找不到人工作。”
Still, Raymond refocused on fuel: “We know the fuel issue is going to continue and that will impact revenues and make it hard to reinvest. The elephant in the room right now is the extra cost in terms of Nova Scotia Power buying fuel. There are fuel adjustment mechanisms and that is something that could have a dramatic impact not just on businesses but on all Nova Scotians.”
卡罗琳·范·登·休夫，，，，executive-director of the Nova Scotia Federation of Agriculture, said the rising costs of inputs, including tractor fuel, fertilizer, and plastic packaging, are increasing at a level that can’t be predicted.
“We have heard from farmers saying they have delayed land clearing or bringing new land into production because of the fuel costs and labour shortages,” Van Den Heuvel said。“In a recent survey, we estimated that the labour gap we have in agriculture is equivalent to $28 million in lost sales to the Nova Scotia economy.”
Laurie Jennings is the owner of the Masstown Market near Exit 12 on Highway 104. Travellers, skiers, and cottagers often stop at Masstown Market to buy fruit and vegetables, baked goods, ice cream, plants, gifts, and wine. Jennings says despite higher gasoline prices, people are still driving their vehicles and “looking for a treat,” so sales at the Masstown Market aren’t hurting.
詹宁斯说：“自当地草莓开始以来已经两个星期了，当然，由于投入成本，价格上涨了。”“我与大村庄的主要浆果生产商柯蒂斯·米伦（Curtis Millen）交谈，他的柴油燃料，肥料和农药的额外费用真是惊人。零售价更高 - 一夸脱的草莓$ 6.99 - 需求也很高。大多数日子我们卖光了。但是请记住，去年的这个时候，在6月初，我们不应该离开市政当局，因为我们被锁定了。因此，作为一名零售商，与过去两年相比，我们叹了口气。”
Jean-Paul Picard, executive-director of the Atlantic Provinces Trucking Association, said the trucking industry has “never been so busy.”
“Business is good and yet 10% of the fleet is parked because they can’t find drivers. If you order a truck, you are waiting two years for it to arrive.”
卡车运输公司最大的问题不是增加燃料成本。几十年来，当货物交付给零售商时，发票增加了这些费用。附加费通常通过更高的食品和其他商品的标价传递给消费者。
“我们对燃油价格的挑战是管理现金流，”皮卡德说，他领导卡车司机协会已有十多年了。“对于一家小型公司，您可以加大卡车，现在可能要花2,000美元。然后，您将该负载交付给蒙特利尔或任何地方，并且在30至45天内您将无法获得该货物的报酬。因此，如果您无法在信用额度上承担这笔费用，那么保持不变可能非常非常困难。一些公司不得不向银行索取延长信贷额度或推迟其设备付款。”
Supply and demand driving oil spikes?
Consumers ultimately pay higher prices for food and goods when oil prices rise.
范·登·休夫（Van den Heuvel）说：“我们知道新斯科舍省人在为食品成本而苦苦挣扎，不得不就汽车付款，租金和食物做出决定。”“我已经与一些直接在农民市场上销售的农民进行了交谈，他们告诉我他们的销售额与去年相比下跌。”
Patrick McAllister, a commodities analyst with RBC Dominion Securities, told the online virtual panel discussion the main reason we are paying record high prices for any product dependent on oil is because after two years of pandemic restrictions “demand came roaring back faster than suppliers could meet.” McAllister said in April 2020, at the beginning of the pandemic, the price of a barrel of oil was actually trading below zero or “in negative territory.”
Global supply dropped by 10 million barrels a day in 2020 compared to a drop of two million barrels a day during the 2008-09 recession, said McAllister. In April 2022, two years after lockdowns began, the price of oil skyrocketed to $115 a barrel. So, supply was already tight before Russia invaded Ukraine and made the global situation worse.
大多数经济预测预测，几个月的石油价格将保持较高的价格，如果在飓风季节没有造成的维护，那么今年夏天，今年夏天可能会缓解油价。麦卡利斯特（McAllister）建议在接下来的两年中，随着制造业和航空旅行反映了压抑的消费者需求，炼油厂很可能很难满足需求。他预测“对于2022年的平衡，经济衰退不是定局的结论。但是今天的风险比2022年初更高。”
麦卡利斯特（McAllister）表示，短暂的衰退不一定是冷却过热经济的坏事。
马斯特镇市场的詹宁斯（Jennings）指出了另一条潜在的一线希望：如果接下来的六个月燃料和运输成本保持较高，那么在新斯科舍省生产的食物应该比从加利福尼亚州运送的生菜和胡萝卜便宜。也许，只要农民能够负担得起生产。而且，只要人们实际上可以在商店和市场的货架上找到当地食品，而不必开车太远就可以购买。
许多企业已经使用“供需”作为支付低工资，保持最低工资低的借口，并反对政府监管，但在需要支付更高的薪水以吸引工人时未能承认供求。是的，这增加了产品的成本，但是，如本文所述，价格较高的产品仍在销售良好。至于运输成本，我们在很大程度上放弃了铁路，但是乘坐铁路比卡车便宜得多。现在可能是时候问为什么政府如此致力于建造高速公路（付出巨大的费用），当时有更便宜的选择。